These variations in the Sun's activity are
linked to cycles of irregular oscillation of the center of
mass of the solar system, it's the gravity center of the solar
system. But the movement of the Sun around the center of mass
of the solar system is quite complicated as its layout is
changed by varying the position of the giant planets (Jupiter,
Saturn, Uranus and Neptune) especially Jupiter. The orbital
cycles of our star vary from 15 to 23 years during which the
sun is alternately accelerated and braked. The different orbits
of the gravity center of the sun around barycenter of the
solar system recur sequentially with a period of 179,60 years.
shows the irregular oscillation of the Sun around the center
the mass of the solar system in a heliocentric perspective.
The Sun is represented
by a thick orange circle. The position of the center of mass
relative to the center
of the Sun is indicated by dots and small circles depending
on the year.
(According to Zolotova et Ponyavin )
The distance between the Sun and the center
of gravity of the Solar System depends on the position of
the planets and Jupiter mainly the most massive planet in
the Solar System.
When the four Jovian planets, the four largest
planets in the Solar System, are aligned on the same side
of the Sun, then about balance the center of the barycenter
is at the farthest distance from the Sun is about 1,13 solar
radii ie 789.467,48 km of the
Sun's surface or around 1.485.097,58
km from the center of Sun.
When Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are aligned
on the same side of the Sun and Jupiter is opposite the Sun
then the gravitational mass and the distance of Jupiter from
the Sun closer than the other three Jovian planets do that
the barycenter is at the minimum distance from the center
of the Sun. So the center of gravity is at 627.371,96
kilometers below the surface of the Sun is at 68.258,14
km from the center of the Sun.
Barycenter position relative
to the Sun,
Jupiter (J), Saturn (S), Uranus (U) and Neptune (N).
Jupiter takes 11,90 years to complete one
revolution of its orbit and Saturn 29,50 years. These two
planets have a cycle of 19,86 years of their conjunctions
(Sun-Jupiter-Saturn) to the next through an opposition (Sun-Jupiter-Saturn)
after the first conjunction of 9,93 years. This cycle is very
close to the double of the Schwabe solar cycle of 8-13 years
ie that of Hales cycle of 22 years. The other two jovians
planets (Uranus and Neptune) could be the cause of the variation
in the duration of these two cycles.
The Sun has a differential rotation on itself
because of its outer layers that do not rotate as a solid
body : while its surface makes a revolution every 25,40 days
at the equator, it must not less than 36 days at the poles
. This rotation is responsible for the activity. By turning
on itself it creates a magnetic field 5.000
times stronger than that of the Earth.
Solar energy is created deep within the core of the Sun.
This is where the temperature (15.000.000°C
and pressure (340 billion times Earth's pressure at sea level)
is so intense that nuclear reactions take place. These reactions
cause the fusion of four protons (hydrogen nuclei) to form
an alpha particle (helium nuclei).
The variation of the position of the Sun relative
to the barycenter due to the planets, would cause long-term
variations of the flow of convection currents in the
surface of the Sun or to 494.160
km from the center of the Sun. This convection zone
has a size of about 200.000
The big convection band is a massive circulation
current (hot plasma) within the sun. It is with two
branches, the north and south branch. Each takes about
40 years to complete a full circuit. This very slow
propagation carries material from the polar regions
to the equator in the course of 20 years. The speed
of this current is very similar to the bands in which
evolve sunspots and which is symbolized by the "butterfly
CM : Center of mass of the Solar System
and CS Center of Sun
convection currents NASA source
The disruption of convection currents due to planets,
would affect the solar activity because more the convection
currents are slow, lower is the solar activity and the faster
they are, more important is solar activity. According to the
theory and observation of convection currents, their speed
allow to forcast the intensity of solar activity of about
the next 20 years.
The slowdown that we saw before the solar cycle No. 24
has been able to show that this solar cycle would be much
lower than the cycle No. 23 and then the solar cycle No. 25
that should be at maximum around the year 2025 ± 1 could be one
of the lowest in recent centuries according the violation
of the G.O. law.
The Forecasting of the solar cycle No.
24 and 25 according to NASA
(end of 2006). Until
2009 NASA provided the cycle No. 24 well raised when early
in 2009 it changed his mind.
Precisely this cycle is rather small with a maximum close
to 60 + or -10 Wolfs after several
evidences. Then NASA plans a solar cycle No. 25 which may
be one of the lowest in the
last 100 years. this does will not be a stroke of chance but
will have links with the position
of gaseous planets and thus with the angular momentum of the
centroid of Solar System (For more information
see next page).
If we compare the change in the anomaly of the Northern
Hemisphere temperature with the change in the time between
the maximum distance Sun-barycenter to the following during
the next removal between the Sun and the barycenter we see
that for the past 1000 years they follow themselves very well.
Only the last ten years the temperature follows less well
due to the greenhouse effect which has also increased the
temperature in the last 30 years because of the effect of
man and therefore his influence has disrupted the climate
which was not the case in previous centuries.
Comparison between the variation in
temperature anomaly in the northern hemisphere
(NASA source) with the change in time that the Sun takes to
make coming and going by
compared to the barycenter of the Solar System (the time that
the sun takes when it is at
the maximum distance of the barycenter to get closer to the
barycenter and move away
from it again at the maximum before to come closer again)
during the last millennium.
next page for remainder Causes of Solar Cycles
Régnier helped me correct mistakes, please you to visit
Im not english speaker, some improprieties can appear
to english masters.
Could you help me reporting by mail any fault you read. Thank
you for all.