Emissions Distribution

Allocating shares for each region

Stabilisation of CO2 concentration, or any "mitigation" scenario, implies a global agreement to limit emissions. Such an agreement is unlikely to be achieved, without including a more equitable distribution of emissions, particularly between industrialised and developing countries. Therefore, it is important to investigate the implications of various distribution options.

This is a controversial issue which IPCC did not yet address, however it is often raised within the UNFCCC process (where it may be referred to as "differentiation of commitments").

Should add some quotes here:
UNFCCC "common but differentiated responsibilities"
related UNFCCC text about reducing per-capita inequity from Bonn COP6.5

You can explore some different approaches, by selecting an option from the distribution menu (top panel), and observing the effect on regional emissions. Note that the distribution options define the shares of CO2 emissions allocated to each region. These shares are multiplied by the total emissions according to your chosen option from the mitigation menu (top panel).

Any of the options below may also be applied following after the Kyoto protocol in 2013

  • Regional Data Plots
  • Regshares module
  • About JCM regions
  • Mitigation scenarios
  • Kyoto protocol option

    List of Options

    Note: this is not intended to be a comprehensive list, other options will be added later

    Per-capita Convergence

    Emissions allocations converge to reach equal per-capita levels in a target year. If you make a plot of emissions per capita, you can experiment with various adjustable paramaters, and see how the formula works.
  • Convergence formula and parameters

    "Brazilian Proposal" (simple variant)

    Allocation of emissions reductions based on cumulative responsibility for climate change. As well as being a fascinating scientific challenge, this is also officially discussed within the UNFCCC-SBSTA process.

    JCM is now participating in the UNFCCC assessment of the scientific aspects of this proposal.

  • See specific page for UNFCCC assessment experiments

  • Note also: Responsibility Module

    Distribution according to SRES baseline

    This combines the SRES regional emissions distribution with total emissions fixed by mitigation scenarios.

    Note, this option is provided only for comparison with other proposals. As you can see from changing between SRES scenarios, there is no single "business as usual" projection. With such a variety of possible scenarios, it would be difficult to agree an emissions allocation formula based on deviation from a "baseline".

  • SRES Scenarios

    Per-GDP Convergence

    The same mathematical formula as per-capita convergence; make a plot of "Emissions per GDP" to see adjustable parameters. This is not a serious policy proposal, however it may be illustrative of proposals based on economic efficiency or "emissions intensity".

    "Grandfathering"

    Equal percentage reductions from a baseline year: The more you polluted in the past, the more emissions quota you get in the future! This is clearly inequitable, but was the starting point for "burden sharing" negotiations in the Kyoto process.


    Other options which may be developed

  • DEA-CCAT proposal
    Reduce Annex-B in steps, and others follow with equivalent reductions compared to baseline after a fixed delay period.


    Historical emissions distribution

  • See Historical emissions for observations regarding the historical emissions data, which comes from CDIAC