What is the Climate Effect of the Kyoto Protocol?

Essentially the answer depends on
  • what you compare it with (SRES or stabilisation or scenarios)
  • what you think Kyoto might lead to later (in the UNFCCC process)

  • See also Kyoto Module -how it works

    You can experiment for yourself, by pressing the "Kyoto" button in the CO2 emissions plot. This will set the fossil fuel CO2 emissions according to the Kyoto targets for AnnexB countries, and according to the SRES scenarios for the other countries (change using the SRES menu).

    As you can see, Kyoto reduces the emissions in 2012 compared with any of the SRES "no-policy" baseline scenarios. However it increases the emissions compared to most pathways leading to stabilisation

  • SRES scenarios (where are we going?)
  • Stabilisation scenarios (where do we need to go?)

    For example, for stabilisation of CO2 concentration at 450ppm, the emissions curve must drop more rapidly if starting after Kyoto 2013. Note, however, that Kyoto reduces also emissions compared to the "delayed start" WRE scenarios which initially follow a IS92A business-as-usual pathway.

    In all cases the immediate impact on the climate is very small, simply because the timescale of the Kyoto protocol is very short in the context of the slow, cumulative process of climate change

  • See Timescales of response

    So the effectiveness of Kyoto really depends on whether it lays a good foundation for the climate convention process, which might lead to greater reductions later. Are the targets a step in the right direction? Can it help to build trust between diverse regional groups? Does it set good precedents in the rules for flexible mechanisms and accounting? Such questions require consideration of diplomacy as well as science.

    The USA announced in spring 2001 that it does not intend to ratify the protocol. You can see what effect this might have by pressing the "US" button on the CO2 emissions plot (if "KP" button is enabled). This sets the US emissions according to the SRES scenario (choose from menu), as for the developing countries. In this case, only about 30% of the total emissions in 2012 would be limited by Kyoto quotas. Moreover, lack of US participation in the first step might discourage participation by other countries later.


    Per-capita emissions

    The effect of the Kyoto protocol on the distribution of emissions, may be illustrated by the a plot of emissions per capita
  • See Regional data plot.

    You can see that the per-capita emissions targets for USA are about twice those of Europe and Japan, which are still about twice the world average. However the most obvious effect of Kyoto is the very large increase for Russia and Ukraine (brown colour), whose per-capita target is similar to that of USA (taking into account population changes). As it is unlikely that they will actually need to burn so much fossil fuel during this period, this surplus "hot air" quota will probably be sold to other countries.