Regional data plot
This multi-purpose plot shows CO2 emissions and various socioeconomic data for twelve regions, from 1900 to 2100.
Java source code
About the regions.
Curves
You can choose which regional quantity to plot, from the "What" menu.
Population (people module)
Energy (people module)
GDP (USdollars) (people module)
CO2 Emissions (regshares module)
Abatement (regshares module)
Accumulated atmospheric CO2 (responsibility module)
Future Population, Energy, and GDP depend on SRES scenarios.
Future CO2 Emissions, Abatement and Responsibility depend on the combination of options from the mitigation menu and distribution menu (top panel).
Note, since the future distribution is a controversial policy issue, the default option is "unspecified" (grey colour).You must choose another option to see meaningful curves for emissions, abatement and responsibility.
Ratio of quantities
You can divide any quantity by any other quantity (as above) chosen from the "Per" menu,
to derive, for example, emissions per capita, abatement per GDP, etc.
(If you don't want any ratio, choose the blank item).
Rate of change
In the "expert" complexity level you can show the percentage change per year, by
selecting the "dy/y.dx" button.
Units
Units change depending on the chosen quantities, move your mouse over the vertical axis to pop up this info.
As there are many possible combinations, the model guesses an appropriate scale range automatically.
Sometimes you may need to adjust this by dragging the vertical axis.
(See also how much is a GtC?)
Timescale
JCM only has socioeconomic data from 1900-2100, since human society changes too fast to predict further into the future. However to show long-term impacts such as sea-level rise, the global science plots extend to 2300. You can link the timescales of all the plots by clicking the (-x-) button at the top.
Controls and Options
Emissions Stabilisation
When CO2 emissions alone are shown, and "stabilise emissions" is chosen from the mitigation menu,
then a parameter control appears for the stabilisation level/year.
In the "expert" complexity level, controls also appear for the cumulative emissions (integral) and initial growth rate.
Mitigation options
Mitigation module
Kyoto option
When emissions are shown ("What" or "Per" menus), the Kyoto protocol option may appear.
See Kyoto Module
See Kyoto protocol option
Convergence controls
If the chosen distribution is per-capita convergence or per-GDP convergence,
convergence controls may appear on emissions per capita or emissions per GDP plots. For explanation see:
Distribution options
Regshares Module
need to add link re "reduce emissions intensity"
.
Discussion
The socioeconomic data helps to reveal some of the driving forces behind the IPCC SRES scenarios.
SRES Scenarios:
The regional emissions depend on a combination of mitigation and distribution options (set a global cap, and share it out)
Emissions options
Mitigation (stabilisation) options
Distribution options
You can also apply Kyoto targets for annex B from 2008-2012:
Kyoto protocol option
Regional plots may be affected by many other modules.
See Cause-effect relationships
See also "how it works" in:
People module.
SRES module.
Mitigation Module
Regshares Module
Kyoto Module
Responsibility Module
Future development
Later it is anticipated to develop a dynamic socioeconomic model with feedbacks to/from the climate system.
Calculations of economic effects of both abatement and climate change impacts are also under development.