"Fuzzy control" or "Geocybernetics"

Deliberate dynamic climate => emissions feedbacks may be used as a basis for a long-term policy formula which adjusts in response to changing climate science or observations. This aims to reduce the effect of uncertainties. If the climate warms more than expected, the global emissions budget should decrease, and vice-versa. Such an approach might also satisfy sceptics, who would not expect much warming.

In any year, the rate of change of emissions may be adjusted as a function of the recent rate of change of temperature or atmospheric CO2 (or other criteria). However, the slow response from emissions to impacts can lead to oscillations as shown: this is a bit like "steering a supertanker by eye down a narrow channel in the fog"! (note the Greek word "cybernaut" means "helmsman"). A better formula combines observation and prediction (a navigator should also use charts and instruments), calculating the rate emissions change based on the deviation from a scientifically modelled target temperature curve, and filtering misleading short-term effects.

  • See also Stabilise Temperature